Global warming threatens economic chaos in SE Asia-ADB saw this link on Reuters today
“MANILA, April 27 (Reuters) – Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change and could face conflict over failing rice yields, lack of water and high economic costs, a major Asian Development Bank report shows.
The region’s economies could lose as much as 6.7 percent of combined gross domestic product yearly by 2100, more than twice the global average loss, according to the ADB’s report on the economics of climate change in Southeast Asia.
“By the end of this century, the economy-wide cost each year on average could reach 2.2 percent of GDP, if only market impact is considered…(to) 6.7 percent of GDP when catastrophic risks are also taken into account,” the British-government funded report said.”
I can’t see why our government are wasting money on this report. While predicting future climate or even tomorrow’s weather with any real accuracy is completely beyond us we now start paying good money to speculate on South East Asia’s economy in 2100. This report seems to presume that what contributes their GDP now will be similar in nearly 100 years . This whole business of speculating on the economy or climate in the distant future is utterly pointless and certainly shouldn’t be the basis of funding decisions. The late great Michael Crichton once said that if you asked people in 1900 what the major issues would be in 2000 it would have been things like “how will they have enough horses for everyone?” and “what will they do with all that horse shit? “ (I’m paraphrasing as I cant find his essay). Our rate of technological development is increasing so its getting harder not easier to predict the future. A further quote from Crichton on the matter gives food for thought:
“Last, I want you to think about what it means to say that we are going to act now to address something 100 years from now. People say this with confidence; we hear that the people of the future will condemn us if we don’t act. But is that true?
We’re at the start of the 21st century, looking ahead. We’re just like someone in 1900, thinking about the year 2000. Could someone in 1900 have helped us?
Here is Teddy Roosevelt, a major environmental figure from 1900. These are some of the words that he does not know the meaning of:
airport, antibiotic, antibody, antenna, computer, continentaldrift, tectonic plates, zipper, nylon, radio, television, robot, video, virus, gene, proton, neutron, atomic structure, quark, atomic bomb, nuclear energy, ecosystem, jumpsuits, fingerprints, step aerobics, 12-step, jet stream, shell shock, shock wave, radio wave, microwave, tidal,wave, tsunami, IUD, DVD, MP3, MRI, HIV, SUV, VHS, VAT, whiplash, wind tunnel, carpal tunnel, fiber optics, direct dialing, dish antennas, gorilla, corneal transplant, liver transplant, heart transplant, liposuction, transduction, maser, taser laser, acrylic, penicillin, Internet, interferon, nylon, rayon, leisure suit, leotard, lap dancing, laparoscopy, arthroscopy, gene therapy, bipolar, moonwalk, spot welding, heat-seeking, Prozac, sunscreen, urban legends, rollover minutes
Given all those changes, is there anything Teddy could have done in 1900 to help us? And aren’t we in his position right now, with regard to 2100?
Think how incredibly the world has changed in 100 years. It will change vastly more in the next century. A hundred years ago there were no airplanes and almost no cars. Do you really believe that 100 years from now we will still be burning fossil fuels and driving around in cars and airplanes? “
Read the full text here
